Jacob Aronson, Paul Huth, and Mark Lichbach of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) and the Government and Politics Department (GVPT) at the University of Maryland (UMD) have been awarded a grant of $150,000 from the Smith Richardson Foundation to study insurgent sanctuary in civil wars.
The project will focus on identifying the causes and consequences of insurgent sub-national access to four different ideal-types of sanctuary: makeshift, hidden, unhardened, and fortified. The first phase of work will seek to explain sub-national variation in sanctuary access--where groups build sanctuaries and why. The second phase will seek to identify the impact of internal, external, and networked sanctuaries on a variety of conflict dynamics, including violence and territorial control. Theories developed will be tested using new sub-national data on sanctuaries and cutting-edge quantitative causal analysis.
A number of academic and policy contributions are expected, including new sub-national data on insurgent sanctuaries across a large number of cases, new theoretical insights into the dynamics of internal conflict, and improvements in forecasting of internal conflict dynamics.